Housing prices and multiple employment nodes: is the relationship nonmonotonic?

Standard urban economic theory predicts that house prices will decline with distance from the central business district. Empirical results have been equivocal, however. Disjoints between theory and empirics may be due to a nonmonotonic relationship between house prices and access to employment arising from the negative externalities associated with proximity to multiple centres of employment. Based on data from Glasgow (Scotland), we use gravity-based measures of accessibility estimated using a flexible functional form that allows for nonmonotonicity. The results are thoroughly tested using recent advances in spatial econometrics. We find compelling evidence of a nonmonotonic effect in the accessibility measure and discuss the implications for planning and housing policy

Demographic and environmental drivers of metagenomic viral diversity in vampire bats

Viruses infect all forms of life and play critical roles as agents of disease, drivers of biochemical cycles and sources of genetic diversity for their hosts. Our understanding of viral diversity derives primarily from comparisons among host species, precluding insight into how intraspecific variation in host ecology affects viral communities or how predictable viral communities are across populations. We test spatial, demographic and environmental hypotheses explaining viral richness and community composition across populations of common vampire bats, which occur in diverse habitats of North, Central and South America. We demonstrate marked variation in viral communities which was not consistently predicted by a null model of declining community similarity with increasing spatial or genetic distances separating populations. We also find no evidence that larger bat colonies host greater viral diversity. Instead, viral diversity follows an elevational gradient, is enriched by juvenile‐biased age structure, and declines with local anthropogenic food resources as measured by livestock density. Our results establish the value of linking the modern influx of metagenomic sequence data with comparative ecology, reveal that snapshot views of viral diversity are unlikely to be representative at the species level, and affirm existing ecological theories that link host ecology not only to single pathogen dynamics but also to viral communities

Is Poverty Decentralising? Quantifying Uncertainty in the Decentralisation of Urban Poverty

In this paper we argue that the recent focus on the suburbanisation of poverty is problematic because of the ambiguities and inconsistencies in defining suburbia. To improve transparency, replicability and comparability, we suggest that research on the geographical changes to the distribution of poverty should focus on three questions: (1) How centralised is urban poverty? (2) To what extent is it decentralising? (3) Is it becoming spatially dispersed? With respect to all three questions, the issue of quantifying uncertainty has been under-researched. The main contribution of the paper is to provide a practical and robust solution to the problem of inference based on a Bayesian multivariate conditional autoregressive (CAR) model, made accessible via the R-software package CARBayes. Our approach can be applied to spatio-temporally autocorrelated data, and can estimate both levels of and change in global RCIs (relative centralisation index), local RCIs and dissimilarity indices. We illustrate our method with an application to Scotland's four largest cities. Our results show that poverty was centralised in 2011 in Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. Poverty in Edinburgh, however, was decentralised: non-poor households tend to live closer to the centre than poor ones, and increasingly so. We also find evidence of statistically significant reductions in centralisation of poverty in all four cities. To test whether this change is associated with poverty becoming more dispersed, we estimate changes to evenness and local decentralisation of poverty, revealing complex patterns of change

Multi‐dimensional biodiversity hotspots and the future of taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity: A case study of North American rodents

AimWe investigate geographic patterns across taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity to test for spatial (in)congruency and identify aggregate diversity hotspots in relationship to present land use and future climate. Simulating extinctions of imperilled species, we demonstrate where losses across diversity dimensions and geography are predicted.LocationNorth America.Time periodPresent day, future.Major taxa studiedRodentia.MethodsUsing geographic range maps for rodent species, we quantified spatial patterns for 11 dimensions of diversity: taxonomic (species, range weighted), ecological (body size, diet and habitat), phylogenetic (mean, variance, and nearest‐neighbour patristic distances, phylogenetic distance and genus‐to‐species ratio) and phyloendemism. We tested for correlations across dimensions and used spatial residual analyses to illustrate regions of pronounced diversity. We aggregated diversity hotspots in relationship to predictions of land‐use and climate change and recalculated metrics following extinctions of IUCN‐listed imperilled species.ResultsTopographically complex western North America hosts high diversity across multiple dimensions: phyloendemism and ecological diversity exceed predictions based on taxonomic richness, and phylogenetic variance patterns indicate steep gradients in phylogenetic turnover. An aggregate diversity hotspot emerges in the west, whereas spatial incongruence exists across diversity dimensions at the continental scale. Notably, phylogenetic metrics are uncorrelated with ecological diversity. Diversity hotspots overlap with land‐use and climate change, and extinctions predicted by IUCN status are unevenly distributed across space, phylogeny or ecological groups.Main conclusionsComparison of taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity patterns for North American rodents clearly shows the multifaceted nature of biodiversity. Testing for geographic patterns and (in)congruency across dimensions of diversity facilitates investigation into underlying ecological and evolutionary processes. The geographic scope of this analysis suggests that several explicit regional challenges face North American rodent fauna in the future. Simultaneous consideration of multi‐dimensional biodiversity allows us to assess what critical functions or evolutionary history we might lose with future extinctions and maximize the potential of our conservation efforts.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154236/1/geb13050.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154236/2/geb13050_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154236/3/geb13050-sup-0001-Supinfo1.pd

Spatially explicit species distribution models: A missed opportunity in conservation planning?

Aim: Systematic conservation planning is vital for allocating protected areas given the spatial distribution of conservation features, such as species. Due to incomplete species inventories, species distribution models (SDMs) are often used for predicting species habitat suitability and species probability of occurrence. Currently, SDMs mostly ignore spatial dependencies in species and predictor data. Here, we provide a comparative evaluation of how accounting for spatial dependencies, that is, autocorrelation, affects the delineation of optimized protected areas. Location: Southeast Australia, Southeast U.S. Continental Shelf, Danube River Basin. Methods: We employ Bayesian spatially explicit and non-spatial SDMs for terrestrial, marine and freshwater species, using realm-specific planning unit shapes (grid, hexagon and subcatchment, respectively). We then apply the software gurobi to optimize conservation plans based on species targets derived from spatial and non-spatial SDMs (10% 50% each to analyse sensitivity), and compare the delineation of the plans. Results: Across realms and irrespective of the planning unit shape, spatially explicit SDMs (a) produce on average more accurate predictions in terms of AUC, TSS, sensitivity and specificity, along with a higher species detection probability. All spatial optimizations meet the species conservation targets. Spatial conservation plans that use predictions from spatially explicit SDMs (b) are spatially substantially different compared to those that use non-spatial SDM predictions, but (c) encompass a similar amount of planning units. The overlap in the selection of planning units is smallest for conservation plans based on the lowest targets and vice versa. Main conclusions: Species distribution models are core tools in conservation planning. Not surprisingly, accounting for the spatial characteristics in SDMs has drastic impacts on the delineation of optimized conservation plans. We therefore encourage practitioners to consider spatial dependencies in conservation features to improve the spatial representation of future protected areas. © 2019 The Authors. Diversity and Distributions Published by John Wiley and Sons LtdThis study was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 642317. SDL has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska‐Curie grant agreement No. 748625, and SCJ from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) for the “GLANCE” project (Global Change Effects in River Ecosystems; 01 LN1320A). We wish to thank Gwen Iacona and two anonymous referees for their constructive comments on an earlier version of the manuscript

Oribatid mites show how climate and latitudinal gradients in organic matter can drive large-scale biodiversity patterns of soil communities

Aim: The factors determining spatial distributions and diversity of terrestrial invertebrates are typically investigated at small scales. Large‐scale studies are lacking for soil animals, which control microbial communities and represent one of the most diverse yet poorly known animal assemblages. Here, we analyzed a major group (Oribatida) to test whether belowground macroecological patterns can be predicted by climatic variables, vegetation and large‐scale variation in key soil properties. Location: We modelled the multivariate distribution of more than 100 species using biodiversity data collected across Great Britain in the framework of the Countryside Survey (http://www.countrysidesurvey.org.uk). Methods: We analyzed species‐level data from 582 samples collected across 162 hectads (10 × 10 km) covering the largest possible range of vegetation types, soil properties and climatic conditions within GB. We created the first large‐scale maps of soil animal diversity metrics at the GB scale, including novel estimates of metrics of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Using structural equation modelling, we quantified the direct and indirect effects of location (latitude, longitude), plant community structure and abiotic factors such as precipitation on species composition, richness and PD. Results: We found that variation in species composition follows a latitudinal gradient with diversity generally increasing northward. The latitudinal variation in species composition drives PD via changes in both species richness and phylogenetic distance between species. This gradient is mostly determined by latitudinal variation in precipitation and organic matter, which were very good predictors of species composition. Precipitation and organic matter were, however, relatively weak while statistically significant predictors of diversity metrics. Conclusions: Past studies have emphasized the unpredictability of species distributions and variation in species composition in hyper diverse soil animal communities. However, past studies were conducted at small scales, where stochastic factors may weaken the signal of deterministic factors. Oribatid mites in our study show for the first time that the large scale latitudinal gradients in climate and organic matter predict not only variation in species composition but also taxonomic and PD of soil animal communities

Migration distance does not predict blood parasitism in a migratory songbird

Migration can influence host–parasite dynamics in animals by increasing exposure to parasites, by reducing the energy available for immune defense, or by culling of infected individuals. These mechanisms have been demonstrated in several comparative analyses; however, few studies have investigated whether conspecific variation in migration distance may also be related to infection risk. Here, we ask whether autumn migration distance, inferred from stable hydrogen isotope analysis of summer‐grown feathers (δ 2Hf) in Europe, correlates with blood parasite prevalence and intensity of infection for willow warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus ) wintering in Zambia. We also investigated whether infection was correlated with individual condition (assessed via corticosterone, scaled mass index, and feather quality). We found that 43% of birds were infected with Haemoproteus palloris (lineage WW1). Using generalized linear models, we found no relationship between migration distance and either Haemoproteus infection prevalence or intensity. There was spatial variation in breeding ground origins of infected versus noninfected birds, with infected birds originating from more northern sites than noninfected birds, but this difference translated into only slightly longer estimated migration distances (~214 km) for infected birds. We found no relationship between body condition indices and Haemoproteus infection prevalence or intensity. Our results do not support any of the proposed mechanisms for migration effects on host–parasite dynamics and cautiously suggest that other factors may be more important for determining individual susceptibility to disease in migratory bird species

Water sources and mixing in riparian wetlands revealed by tracers and geospatial analysis

Acknowledgments We thank the European Research Council (ERC) (project GA 335910 VEWA) and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (project NE/K000268/1) for funding and the Airborne Research and Survey Facility for conducting the aerial survey. The data used are available from the authors. In addition, we would like to thank the additional support from Audrey Innes for the sample analysis and Maria Blumstock and Mike Kennedy for assisting with field work.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Climate and mating systems as drivers of global diversity of parental care in frogs

Aim Amphibians exhibit unusually diverse reproductive modes, including a wide array of parental care strategies. The evolutionary drivers of this diversity, however, remain unclear. Here, we investigate three major factors that might predict interspecific variation in parental care strategies: climate, intrasexual selection and social environment. We hypothesize that some forms of care evolved to cope with harsh conditions, such as dry or unpredictable habitats. We contrast this prediction with the hypothesis that parental roles have co‐evolved with the social environment and mating systems. Location Global. Major taxa studied Frogs and toads (Amphibia: Anura). Time period Extant taxa that represent c . 220 Myr of evolutionary history. Methods Using geographical and behavioural data for 971 species of frogs and toads that represent 45 anuran families, we quantified the global distribution of four forms of parenting separately for males and females: nest building, nest and/or tadpole attendance, carrying and nourishment. We used phylogenetic comparative analyses to investigate whether climate, social environment and mating systems predicted interspecific variation in parental care. Results Our results showed that climatic effects contribute to parental care diversity: in cool and humid climates the males provide offspring attendance, whereas in predictable temperatures endotrophy occurs, whereby the female provides all nutrients for the offspring until metamorphosis. In addition, we found other associations between mating systems and forms of parental care: uniparental clutch attendance by males is present in species with territorial defence, whereas cooperative nest building co‐occurs with sperm competition. The type of parental care is not associated with adult sex ratios. Main conclusions No specific form of care is associated with hostile environments; in fact, some forms of care occur in beneficial conditions, whereas others are used independently from the climate. Instead, parenting diversity has co‐evolved closely with mating systems in frogs

The geographic mosaic of herbicide resistance evolution in the common morning glory, Ipomoea purpurea: Evidence for resistance hotspots and low genetic differentiation across the landscape

Strong human‐mediated selection via herbicide application in agroecosystems has repeatedly led to the evolution of resistance in weedy plants. Although resistance can occur among separate populations of a species across the landscape, the spatial scale of resistance in many weeds is often left unexamined. We assessed the potential that resistance to the herbicide glyphosate in the agricultural weed Ipomoea purpurea has evolved independently multiple times across its North American range. We examined both adaptive and neutral genetic variations in 44 populations of I. purpurea by pairing a replicated dose–response greenhouse experiment with SSR genotyping of experimental individuals. We uncovered a mosaic pattern of resistance across the landscape, with some populations exhibiting high‐survival postherbicide and other populations showing high death. SSR genotyping revealed little evidence of isolation by distance and very little neutral genetic structure associated with geography. An approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis uncovered evidence for migration and admixture among populations before the widespread use of glyphosate rather than the very recent contemporary gene flow. The pattern of adaptive and neutral genetic variations indicates that resistance in this mixed‐mating weed species appears to have evolved in independent hotspots rather than through transmission of resistance alleles across the landscape.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/113156/1/eva12290_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/113156/2/eva12290.pd